Kent State Today recently reached out to Michael Ensley, Ph.D., associate professor of political science, about what to watch for in the final weeks leading up to the Nov. 8 election. Ensley sees the economy, immigration, crime and access to abortion as key issues for voters while also providing insight into polling.
鈥淲hat can we expect to see in this fall鈥檚 elections both across Ohio and the nation? What trends should we look for?鈥
Midterm elections almost always are challenging for the incumbent president鈥檚 party - the president鈥檚 party almost always loses seats because (1) midterms are a referendum on the president鈥檚 performance and (2) the enthusiasm and increased participation that led to the president鈥檚 victory two years earlier dissipates and turnout in favor of the president鈥檚 party typically drops. And this midterm loss phenomenon is set up to be worse for Democrats because the economic situation is difficult and Biden鈥檚 approval is relatively low.
So I am most paying attention to the extent to which Democratic candidates can push the voters鈥 focus toward local issues and the deficiencies of their Republican opponents (and by implication, take the focus off the national economic and political climate).
Do you expect to see any changes or trends when it comes to in-person voting vs. voting by mail?
I would anticipate that voting by mail would remain elevated simply because people used the procedure before. Voting can be habit-forming - if you vote by mail once, you are more likely to vote that way again. The big exception to this is if the state in which you reside has changed laws with regard to vote-by-mail procedures. You might see a decrease of vote-by-mail in those states that changed the procedures. Another caveat to this would be that Republican-leaning voters might be less likely to vote by mail this election because many Republican politicians have questioned the integrity of the vote-by-mail procedures.
Are there themes to the messages we鈥檙e hearing this time around? And how do we (or the candidates) know if a message is really working?
Given this is a midterm election that favors the Republicans, Republican candidates are going to keep the focus on national party politics, the Biden Administration, and the poor economic conditions. For example, in the Ohio Senate contest, JD Vance wants to tie Tim Ryan to the National Democratic Leadership, and Nancy Pelosi in particular. Republicans across the country will continue trying to connect their Democratic opponents to Biden, Pelosi, and the poor economy. They will also continue to emphasize problems with the immigration system and connect this to the growing concern among voters about crime.
Democrats want to counteract the midterm loss phenomenon by playing up fears among citizens, and especially their base of Democratic-leaning citizens, about (1) threats to democracy posed by the Republican Party; and (2) the loss of abortion rights. The Democrats hope these two issues will help mobilize their supporters and possibly attract a few undecided, swing voters. I think these factors can help with the mobilization of voters who are already predisposed to support Democrats, but I am skeptical that either of these issues can do much to attract undecided voters because (1) threats to democracy are not a high-priority issue for swing voters, and (2) abortion is unlikely to be a high priority issue for voters who are pro-choice but lean towards the Republican Party otherwise.
Is polling still reliable as a predictor of election night outcomes? Will the outcome of Ohio鈥檚 races really matter in the national picture?
I would say that polling is still effective for understanding trends in these elections, but the bias that has emerged in particular states since the 2016 election is still present. It seems that the citizens that Trump and his allies have recently attracted toward the Republican side are less likely to participate in pre-election polls. If we recognize that support for Trump blossomed in states with high numbers of older white voters without college degrees, we can imagine the polls might underestimate support for Republicans in states such as Ohio. With all that being said, the polls certainly still provide useful insights, particularly with regard to which direction support is trending.
What part, if any, will the national conversation around voting security and accuracy play in this election鈥檚 turnout and results?
I think these discussions might impact the types of procedures that voters decide to use (e.g., voting in person versus vote-by-mail). However, I don鈥檛 anticipate people will stop voting because of these discussions. Some marginal voters may use as an excuse for why they didn鈥檛 vote (e.g., 鈥渕y vote won鈥檛 be counted anyways鈥) but I would expect that people鈥檚 decisions to vote will be influenced by their other concerns (mainly the economy, crime, immigration, and access to abortion).